According to a new analysis of two reputable political data organizations, Dr. Bob Lorinser is within reach of unseating incumbent Jack Bergman in the race for Michigan's 1st Congressional District.
Using the "Partisan Voting Index" by the Cook Report and new national data by Monmouth Polling, Lorinser is showing a massive swing in his chances to represent Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula in the House of Representatives.
TRAVERSE CITY, Mich. — In Dec. 2021, Cook Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) estimated that Republicans had a 13-point advantage in Michigan's 1st Congressional District (MI01).
National polling by Monmouth in January also showed that the public favored Republicans for party control of Congress by 7% (+7R).
However, the latest Monmouth Polling recently calculated a 14-pt. swing toward Democrats, creating a +7D national advantage. The PVI, in combination with Monmouth's latest poll, brings Lorinser within striking distance of overturning the seat.
Given all of the new data, this is going to be a very tight race," said Dr. Lorinser. "We still have to earn those votes. Being within reach of victory gives us unprecedented momentum, but people are more than just pieces of data. We intend to continue campaigning with vigor."
Previous presidential elections determine Cook's outlook, comparing Northern Michigan / U.P. to district averages across the Nation. With a national swing for Democrats (now +7D), MI01 appears to be a competitive race.
Kevin Numerick, Dr. Lorinser's campaign manager, says although this projection does not directly compare the candidates to each other, the campaign is confident in the forecast.
"The information matches up with what we've seen on the ground," said Numerick. "With Jack's negative voting record and Dr. Bob's positive message focused on unity and support for working people, jobs, and healthcare access, especially reproductive freedom, we have a lot of support across party lines. Seeing more extensive data from outside sources is encouraging."
Lorinser's probable boost comes after the Supreme Court voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Voters across both parties in Kansas came out in droves in opposition to a ballot referendum that would have restricted women's rights.
"As a family physician, I have a profound reverence for life, but I believe in a woman's right to choose," said Dr. Lorinser. "A doctor's office is far too small for a woman, her doctor, and the entire United States government.
"The SCOTUS ruling on Roe v. Wade is a tragedy for women across the Nation. I am motivated more than ever to get to Congress so I can be an advocate for individual liberty and reproductive freedom. I hope voters see the value of sending a compassionate family physician to the House. It will be a real advantage for our District and Nation.”
Monmouth is the only A+ certified polling organization that has conducted national polling after the Kansas primary. Michigan has a similar ballot initiative that Monmouth data suggests will galvanize pro-choice voters.
"Watching my opponent's campaign, it's clear Bergman is also aware that the pendulum is shifting," said Dr. Lorinser. "To give voters a direct comparison, I hope he will soon find the courage to debate me."